Forecasting : Methods and Applications

基本信息

Format:Hardback 656 pages

Publisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc

Imprint:John Wiley & Sons Inc

Edition:3rd Edition

ISBN:9780471532330

Published: 15 Dec 1997

Classifications:Economic forecasting, Business studies: general

Readership:Postgraduate, Research & Scholarly Undergraduate

Weight:1182g

Dimensions:244 x 199 x 29 (mm)

Pub. Country:United States

頁面參數僅供參考，具體以實物為準

書籍簡介

這本權威著作的第三版採用了一種新的方法——與該領域的*趨勢一樣新穎:“解釋過去不足以預測未來”。換句話説，準確的預測需要的不僅僅是模型與歷史數據的擬合。在這本書中，讀者將發現當今商業管理人員使用的*技術，發現預測的重要性，並瞭解預測是如何實現的。讀者將發展必要的技能，以滿足不斷增長的對深思熟慮和現實預測的需求。

Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.

目錄

The Forecasting Perspective.

Basic Forecasting Tools.

Time Series Decomposition.

Exponential Smoothing Methods.

Simple Regression.

Multiple Regression.

The Box-Jenkins Methodology for Arima Models.

Advanced Forecasting Models.

Forecasting the Long-Term.

Judgmental Forecasting and Adjustments.

The Use of Forecasting Methods in Practice.

Implementing Forecasting: Its Uses, Advantages, and Limitations.

Appendices.

Indexes.

作者簡介

Spyros Makridakis是尼科西亞大學的教授，他是未來研究所的主任，歐洲工商管理學院決策科學的名譽教授。Steven C. Wheelwright是《預測:方法與應用》第三版的作者，由Wiley出版。

Spyros Makridakis is a professor of the University of Nicosia UNIC where he is the Director of the Institute for the Future and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD. Steven C. Wheelwright is the author of Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd Edition, published by Wiley.