Judgment under Uncertainty

基本信息

Edited by:Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky

Format:Paperback / softback 544 pages

Publisher:Cambridge University Press

Imprint:Cambridge University Press

ISBN:9780521284141

Published:30 Apr 1982

Classifications:Cognition & cognitive psychology

Weight:812g

Dimensions:226 x 150 x 27 (mm)

Pub. Country:United Kingdom

頁面參數僅供參考，具體以實物為準

書籍簡介

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book.

Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

這本書的35個章節描述了各種各樣的判斷啟發法和它們產生的偏差，不僅在實驗室實驗中，而且在重要的社會、醫療和政治形勢中也是如此。個別章節討論了代表性和可得性啟發式，判斷共變和控制的問題，過度自信，多階段推斷，社會知覺，醫學診斷，風險知覺，以及在不確定性下糾正和改進判斷的方法。大約一半的章節是經典文章的編輯版本;其餘的章節是為這本書新寫的。

大多數評論多個研究或整個子領域的研究和應用，而不是描述單一的實驗研究。這本書對廣大的學生和研究人員，以及尋求洞察他們的判斷並加以改進的決策者都很有幫助。

作者簡介

Kahneman is the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology and Professor of Public Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He has been a faculty member at Hebrew University, Israel, the University of British Columbia, Canada, and the University of California, Berkeley.

卡尼曼是尤金·希金斯心理學教授，也是普林斯頓大學伍德羅·威爾遜公共與國際事務學院的公共事務教授。他曾在以色列希伯來大學、加拿大英屬哥倫比亞大學和加州大學伯克利分校任教。