認知心理學博士 世界撲克系列賽（WSOP）冠軍

世界500強決策顧問安妮·杜克

★★幫助你更好地評估事實 優選決策方案★★

重塑科學決策系統 使你成為自信鎮定的人生出牌者

總有些時刻面臨關鍵決策。在這個充滿不確定性的時代，我們在決策時時常面臨信息不足、不理性和盲從的局面。一旦決策錯誤，就要用更長時間來為之買單。我們需要專業的決策課。

作者融合心理科學和撲克高手實戰經驗，總結出了對賭思維。通過建立科學的決策系統，做對人生關鍵選擇。

在信息不足時，撲克手需要在兩分鐘內做出20個決策，本質上像一場又一場的決策實驗，可以説——職業撲克手就是職業決策者。

《對賭》通過許多生動的案例，介紹了一套人人都可以採用的、強大（但易於操作）的方法。它讓你瞭解決策背後是概率選擇，關注決策質量而不以結果論成敗；讓你破除心理上的自利性偏差，讓你在情緒不穩的情況下及時退出止損。

培養了科學的認知習慣後，加上各種思維工具的有效運用，如同伴制的求真團體和心理時間旅行法等，建立強大且完整的科學決策系統。

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? 

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

安妮·杜克曾獲得哥倫比亞大學心理學和英語雙學士、賓夕法尼亞大學認知心理學博士學位，博士期間獲得美國國家科學基金會的研究基金。後因偶然機會成為德州撲克界職業傳奇女牌手。至2012年退役時，她贏得了一條世界撲克系列賽金手鍊，以及400多萬美元的比賽獎金。

退役後，安妮·杜克結合自己在職業撲克賽中的實踐決策技能，繼續從事認知和決策心理學方向的研究，是在決策和風險領域廣受歡迎的專業演講家和決策戰略家，進行過上千次演講。她擔任萬豪國際、美國銀行、花旗集團等世界500強企業的決策諮詢顧問，同時還是“我如何做決策”（HowIDecide.org）網站聯合創始人，“課外全明星”（After-School All-Stars）公益組織董事會成員，富蘭克林研究所理事。

Annie Duke (Author)

Paperback: 288 pages

Publisher: Portfolio; Reprint edition (May 7 2019)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0735216371

ISBN-13: 978-0735216372

Product Dimensions: 13.9 x 1.8 x 20.8 cm

Shipping Weight: 290 g